Executive summary
Society is dependent on carbon-based chemicals for everyday uses and specialist applications. The vast majority of chemicals are currently made from fossil feedstocks – oil, natural gas and coal. The chemical sector has co-developed alongside the fossil fuel industry over the last century and is currently closely integrated with, and dependent on, fossil fuels.
Whilst there will still be some fossil fuel use in 2050, there is uncertainty over the future availability and price of existing fossil feedstocks as other sectors decarbonise. The challenge this policy briefing addresses is the sourcing of alternative feedstocks, together with the science that is available to use those feedstocks and the opportunities that will be created through this evolving science.
Demand for embedded carbon in chemicals is forecast to double by 2050. Emissions will also increase if this growing demand is met with continued use of fossil feedstocks, fossil based energy intensive production processes, and high levels of end-of-life product incineration. This will make it more difficult for society to reach net zero emissions targets and will have wider environmental implications.
The chemical sector accounts for approximately 6% of global CO2-equivalent emissions. At least one-third of chemical sector emissions are due to direct energy consumption and chemical transformation processes, typically powered by fossil fuels. These emissions can be reduced through, for example, the electrification of power and heating and energy efficiency improvements.
The chemical sector cannot fully decarbonise, though, as most chemicals inherently contain carbon atoms that are essential to the material’s structure. As this briefing explores, it could be possible to significantly ‘defossilise’ the organic chemical industry by replacing fossil feedstocks with alternative carbon sources, as part of the transition to a net zero chemical industry.
The alternative feedstocks explored in this briefing are biomass, plastic waste and carbon dioxide (CO2). These can act as sources of carbon required for primary chemical building blocks, further intermediate chemicals and ultimately downstream consumer products. These alternative starting materials have the potential to reduce the chemical industry’s greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the emissions and wider sustainability factors of alternative feedstocks must be carefully assessed and minimised to inform any transition. This includes the feedstock source, energy requirements for chemical transformations and production, and downstream product end-of-life treatment. It is critical that the use of alternative feedstocks does not exacerbate or lead to new environmental or societal harms.
Whilst this briefing finds that new chemistry offers many opportunities, significant challenges remain to deploying the use of alternative feedstocks at world scale production levels. This is a limiting factor on potential emissions reductions, at present. Alongside developments in chemistry, there will need to be a vast expansion of renewable energy and green hydrogen to enable the transition to a net zero chemical industry. Competition for feedstocks and energy could inhibit this transition. Long-term, cross government, international policy coordination could help to address this risk and build in resilience of supply.
There is no single future ideal or target mix of alternative feedstocks. Biomass, plastic waste and CO2 will likely all have a role to play in defossilising the chemical industry, but it is not possible to predict the exact future ratio of each feedstock type. This mix will change over time and space, as technologies develop, policies change, and feedstock availability and chemical industry characteristics vary between countries and commercial opportunities.
There are both challenges and opportunities of transitioning to a net zero chemical industry. There will need to be continued research and development in key fields of chemistry, such as catalysis, that are central to the advancement of many routes from alternative carbon sources to chemicals.
Without intervention, the transition to alternative feedstocks will happen over many decades. There has been progress in key areas of chemistry and the research base is growing, but there are significant technical, scientific and economic barriers to overcome for the chemical industry to transition away from fossil feedstocks to alternative carbon sources.
Alongside continued research and innovation, the question for policy and industry is how to ensure that solutions are ready for deployment and are commercially viable. This briefing identifies that competing demands for feedstock, impurity and heterogeneity of feedstock, and technology scalability are all matters that need to be resolved.